Apophis Asteroid 2029: NASA Says Safe Flyby, But Scientists Watch Closely
Asteroid 99942 Apophis (named after an Egyptian god of chaos) is set for an unusually close approach to Earth. When it was discovered in 2004 by astronomers at Kitt Peak Observatory, Apophis briefly appeared on impact-hazard lists. On April 13, 2029 it will pass about 20,000 miles (32,000 kilometers) from Earth’s surface– closer than many geosynchronous satellites – but NASA now says there is no risk of collision for at least 100 years. This historically close flyby offers scientists a front-row seat to study a large asteroid up close.
Discovery and Mythology
Asteroid Apophis was discovered on June 19, 2004 by astronomers Roy Tucker, David Tholen, and Fabrizio Bernardi at Kitt Peak National Observatory. Initially designated 2004 MN4, it later received the permanent number 99942 and was named “Apophis,” the Greek name for the ancient Egyptian serpent god of chaos. (The name is often associated with a villain from the science-fiction series Stargate, but NASA clarifies that this was coincidental.) Despite its ominous name, Apophis is just an ordinary near-Earth asteroid roughly 340 meters across – comparable to a large skyscraper.
2029 Flyby: Close—but Safe
In a historic cosmic encounter, Apophis will swoop by Earth on April 13, 2029 (a Friday the 13th) at an altitude of only about 20,000 miles (32,000 km). That is roughly one-tenth the distance to the Moon, and well inside the orbit of geostationary satellites. Far from causing catastrophe, this flyby will be carefully observed as a scientific event. NASA notes there is “no danger to Earth, to anyone or anything living on it, or to astronauts or satellites in space”. Instead, astronomers say Earth’s gravity will tug on Apophis during the encounter. The tidal forces will stretch and squeeze the asteroid, likely altering its orbit and rotation, and possibly triggering landslides on its surface. This rare alignment provides scientists a first-ever opportunity to watch a large asteroid change in real time under Earth’s influence.
NASA Analysis: No Impact for 100+ Years
In recent years, NASA’s tracking of Apophis has greatly improved our knowledge of its orbit. In March 2021, astronomers used powerful radar at the Goldstone Deep Space Network antenna and the Green Bank Telescope to pin down Apophis’s motion with extreme precision. The new data allowed NASA to rule out any collision in 2068 – the last remaining virtual impact scenario. “A 2068 impact is not in the realm of possibility anymore,” said JPL scientist Davide Farnocchia, “and our calculations don’t show any impact risk for at least the next 100 years”. With this certainty, Apophis has been officially removed from NASA’s near-Earth object risk table. As Farnocchia notes, Apophis was long the “poster child” of hazardous asteroids, and seeing it removed from the risk list brings relief.
NASA and ESA Missions
To capitalize on Apophis’s close approach, space agencies are dispatching spacecraft. NASA’s OSIRIS-REx mission (which returned a sample from asteroid Bennu in 2023) has been extended and retargeted as OSIRIS-APEX (“Apophis Explorer”). In 2029 OSIRIS-APEX will fly past Earth just an hour after Apophis, using our planet’s gravity as a slingshot, then rendezvousing with the asteroid in mid-2029 for an 18-month study. Meanwhile, the European Space Agency plans the Rapid Apophis Mission for Planetary Defense (nicknamed RAMSES), slated to launch in 2028 and arrive before the 2029 flyby. These missions will carry cameras, spectrometers and laser altimeters to map Apophis’s surface. In fact, OSIRIS-APEX will dip low to the asteroid and fire its engines downward to kick up loose rocks and dust, giving scientists a peek beneath the surface. Together, NASA’s and ESA’s spacecraft will deliver before-and-after snapshots of Apophis – a boon for science and a rehearsal for defending Earth against any future threatening asteroid.
Tracking and Observing Apophis
Amateur skywatchers and professional astronomers alike will track Apophis during its 2029 flyby. At closest approach Apophis will brighten to about magnitude 3.1 – as bright as a faint star – and will be visible to the naked eye from dark skies in Europe, Africa, and western Asia. It will streak across the sky at up to 42° per hour, so observers will see a point of light moving rapidly against the stars. Telescopes around the world (coordinated by NASA’s International Asteroid Warning Network) will record Apophis’s motion and changing brightness. Every report will help refine its orbit even further ahead of 2029’s encounter.
NASA has also used radar to study Apophis. In March 2021 the Goldstone antenna in California and the Green Bank Telescope in West Virginia bounced radio waves off the distant asteroid, even when it was 17 million miles away. The returning echoes fixed Apophis’s distance to within about 150 meters and produced low-resolution images showing its shape. Those images (grainy as they appear) suggest Apophis is a bilobed, “peanut”-shaped object37. As one JPL radar specialist noted, these observations turned the flyby into a “wonderful science opportunity”38, confirming Earth is safe and setting the stage for detailed study.
Impact Risks and Scenarios
At roughly 340 meters in diameter, Apophis is large enough that a hypothetical impact would be very serious. Planetary scientists estimate that if Apophis did strike Earth, it would unleash over 1,000 megatons of energy – more than any nuclear arsenal on the planet. Such a collision would blast a crater miles wide and devastate hundreds of miles around the impact site. (For scale: the 10–15 km asteroid that killed the dinosaurs 66 million years ago was tens to hundreds of times larger.) However, NASA’s refined orbit calculations now show that Apophis will not hit Earth in 2029 or in the foreseeable future. Even during the 2029 flyby it will miss our planet by a comfortable margin, and its inclined path means it won’t cross the equatorial plane of most satellites. In short, Apophis poses no realistic threat — but studying it helps humanity prepare for asteroids that might someday come closer.
Myths vs. Facts
- Myth: Apophis will slam into Earth on April 13, 2029. Fact: Extensive observations show Apophis will safely miss Earth by about 32,000 km. NASA says there is no collision risk in 2029 or for at least the next century.
- Myth: The asteroid’s evil name means it’s destined to cause destruction. Fact: “Apophis” is just a name chosen by astronomers after an Egyptian mythological serpent. The asteroid itself is no more dangerous because of its name — it follows the laws of physics, not folklore.
- Myth: Apophis will hit our satellites or the Moon. Fact: Apophis’s path is inclined and well below the geostationary satellite belt. It will not collide with satellites, and its distance from Earth at flyby is far from the Moon’s orbit. Neither satellites nor the Moon are in danger.
- Myth: Space agencies are hiding a cover-up. Fact: On the contrary, NASA and ESA have been very open about Apophis. Observations are shared in public databases, and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) coordinates global tracking. Apophis was even used as the target for planetary defense exercises. Experts emphasize transparency: if Apophis ever showed any dangerous path, it would be public knowledge.
Looking Ahead: Planetary Defense and Global Effort
The Apophis flyby has become a poster case for planetary defense readiness. Space agencies describe missions to Apophis as “good practice” for any future asteroid threat. By studying Apophis up close, scientists will learn how such bodies respond to gravitational nudges and surface disturbance – data that feeds into deflection strategies. This effort is highly collaborative: international groups like the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) are standing by with plans for joint responses to any actual threat. Even the United Nations has highlighted Apophis as part of global Asteroid Awareness campaigns. The global verdict is clear: Apophis is a chance to practice science and readiness, not a cause for panic.
Conclusion
The story of Apophis 2029 is ultimately one of science replacing fear. Early sensational headlines have been replaced by rigorous analysis: astronomers assure us Apophis will not collide with Earth, but will pass safely at about 32,000 km distance . Instead of doom, April 2029 promises a rare astronomical show. Apophis will appear as a small, fast-moving dot of light in the sky – a spectacle never before witnessed by our species. Above all, the 2029 flyby is a victory for planetary science. It demonstrates how early detection and international collaboration can neutralize fear and turn a potential hazard into a scientific treasure. When the day comes, we won’t be hiding under the covers – we’ll be looking up in wonder.
